The Seventh Sense

Earthquake In Sichuan China

Sichuan University student takes video at 2:29pm in dorm.

Best Little Whorehouse Review

It's a hit:

By Mary Martin Niepold

SPECIAL TO THE JOURNAL

Published: May 12, 2008

Its storyline practically guarantees the fun: A whorehouse in Texas, circa 1976, is about to be shut down through no fault of some of its own customers: a governor, a senator and longtime friend, Sheriff Ed Earl Dodd.

Affectionately called the Chicken Ranch, this particular establishment is also where most of the action unfolds in The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, a musical being put on by the Winston-Salem Theatre Alliance that opened Friday night.

Best Little Whorehouse is a big-number production with snappy choreography and a large cast, most notably 15 or so prostitutes, their madam, some townspeople, various politicians, local choristers, the Texas Aggies football team and -- at the center of the storm -- troublemaker Melvin P. Thorpe, a flamboyant TV personality who is determined to shut down the Chicken Ranch and fulfill his destiny as "watchdog" for the local TV market.

According to the show's own admission, this whorehouse had been around for more than a century. Now, Miss Mona (a former prostitute and current madam) has inherited it, and people can remember the days when the "ladies" began accepting poultry for payment, "one bird, one lay."

And so the evening goes: Ribald language, profane language, partial nudity and some very suggestive vignettes of coupling in the chicken house. Laughs and live music also spark Best Little Whorehouse, even though the pacing is sometimes slow on a show that's known for its spitfire and rapid delivery.

This show opened on Broadway in 1978 with choreography by Tommy Tune. Its book by Larry L. King and Peter Masterson with music and lyrics by Carol Hall went on to garner multiple Tony nominations and won Drama Desk awards for music and lyrics.

In Theatre Alliance's show, the music can fill the house at times, with two numbers in particular. One is a solo in which Jaye Pierce plays a gum-snapping waitress named Doatsey Mae who wishes she'd had a more exciting life. When she sings a hauntingly beautiful ballad, "Doatsey Mae," we also wish she'd not been quite so respectable.

At the other end of the musical spectrum is one of the show's best big-ticket numbers. "The Aggie Song" is a robust, full-bodied press from a chorus of football players getting ready to visit the Chicken Ranch, their prize for winning the Thanksgiving game earlier that day. It's pure fun, and director Jamie Lawrence successfully pulls in other cast members to deliver the song's punch -- raunchy athletes and prostitutes dressed in long satin gowns and corsages.

Two standout roles include the Sheriff played by Mikey Wiseman and the TV anchorman played by Gray Smith. Smith is never at a loss when taking center stage, as he frequently does at Theatre Alliance productions, and Wiseman, last seen in The Little Theatre's production of The Foreigner, has another hit with his role as Ed Earl.

Best Little Whorehouse is a good-time ending for the Theatre Alliance's season and its home at SECCA. A new home is expected to be announced in the fall.

■ The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas presented by the Winston-Salem Theatre Alliance continues Thursday, Friday and Saturday at 8 p.m. and May 18 at 2 p.m. at SECCA, 750 Marguerite Drive, Winston-Salem. Tickets are $14 for adults; seniors and students, $12. For more information, call 768-5655.

Obama Takes Superdelegate Lead

From First Read:

Barack Obama has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the NBC NEWS superdelegate count with the endorsement of Hawaii's Dolly Strazar. This is his second of the day and puts him now officially over the top, 277-276.5.

Obama has now picked up 21 superdelegates since last Tuesday's contests in North Carolina and Indiana. Clinton has picked up 1.5

The NBC NEWS delegate counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Obama 277, Clinton 276.5
TOTAL: Obama 1,867, Clinton 1,702.5

Things Younger Than John McCain

Bugs Bunny

The Polio Vaccine

Both of Obama's Parents

Mount Rushmore

McDonalds

Alaska

From thingsyoungerthanmccain.com

UPDATE:

Bill O'Reilly: "Fuck It! Fucking Thing Sucks!"

An outtake from when he hosted Inside Edition a while back:

Nice lingo, Billo.

UPDATE: CBS has ordered YouTube to take down the video, but it can still be viewed here. 

My Weekend In The Whorehouse

Good audiences, although the Sunday Mother's Day audience was (not surprisingly) a little light.  The show amazingly has come together despite the large cast (31 in all) plagued with injuries, conflicts, dropouts, and latecomers.  Band is tight.  Chroeography came together.  I was pretty happy with my song ("The Sidestep") although I forgot to take my mike off of mute on Saturday night (I was told I could still be heard though).

Hot as hell onstage.  AC is out at SECCA, although they brought in portable units to make it better.

Still plenty of tickets for the second weekend.  See info in right column.

Trouble For The GOP

The Hillary-Obama feud is, in my opinion, overplayed.  Hillary will drop out, and the party will unite.  Most think McCain has has a gift by not having opposition all this time.

But there are clouds on the horizon.

Ron Paul Supporters Plan To Disrupt McCain’s GOP Nominating Convention Coronation

Is Arizona Senator John McCain facing an opposition-free Republican convention where it’ll be clear, conflict-free sailing as he wins the delegate count to make him the nominee and shapes a platform to his personal liking? According to the Los Angeles Times’ Andrew Malcomb, the answer is “nope”: Rep. Ron Paul’s forces will be there and they have other ideas:

…..[Q]uietly, largely under the radar of most people, the forces of Rep. Ron Paul have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in St. Paul at the beginning of September.

Paul’s presidential candidacy has been correctly dismissed all along in terms of winning the nomination. He was even excluded as irrelevant by Fox News from a nationally-televised GOP debate in New Hampshire.

Heh.

And then there's Bob Barr, running as a third party candidate, which will sap a lot of votes from the GOP.  He's the Ralph Nadar of the right.

Barr unpersuaded by 'don't run' pleas

Former Rep. Bob Barr says a number of Republicans have been trying to persuade him not to run for president on the Libertarian Party ticket, but none has given him a convincing reason.

The former Republican congressman from Georgia formed an exploratory committee last month and told The Washington Times he has since been subjected to the behind-the-scenes pressure from Republicans not to run.

Mr. Barr says even people who have tried to dissuade him understand why he thinks it important to raise issues from what he calls a "genuinely conservative" perspective and to offer alternatives to the positions of the two major-party candidates.

"In the month since we formed our exploratory committee, not a single Republican who has spoken with me to try and convince me not to seek the Libertarian nomination has disagreed with my reasons for considering a run," Mr. Barr told The Times today in an e-mail exchange before leaving London on a flight to Atlanta.

Most Republicans who asked him not to run "also said they understand why I'd run and why John McCain is not conservative and will not seriously tackle the growth in government power and spending," he said. "Some said they would vote for me if I ran, but for the sake of the Republican Party, they would prefer I didn't."

Heh again.

And finally, who else might be drawing votes from the GOP candidate?  Well, Obama himself, if this is any indication:

Michael Dudley is the son of a preacher man.

He's a born-again Christian with two family members in the military. He grew up in the Bible Belt, where almost everyone he knew was Republican. But this fall, he's breaking a handful of stereotypes: He plans to vote for Democrat Barack Obama.

"I think a lot of Christians are having trouble getting behind everything the Republicans stand for," said Dudley, 20, a sophomore at Seattle Pacific University.

Dudley's disenchantment with the GOP isn't unique among young, devoutly Christian voters. According to a September 2007 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 15 percent of white evangelicals between 18 and 29, a group traditionally a shoo-in for the GOP, say they no longer identify with the Republican Party. Older evangelicals are also questioning their traditional allegiance, but not at the same rate.

Even Robert Novak notes that McCain has an "evangelical problem".

I like the way this is shaping up....

Not Done Yet

Something west of us in Yadkin County brewing. Guess we're not out of the woods yet. Power is out lots of places. I-40 eastbound closed. I have power. (Yes, I'm blogging from my cell in bed)

Live local news stream available by clicking here

UPDATE (12:54 a.m.):  The tornado warning has been extended to 4 a.m., but it is pretty clear that if anything comes this way (meaning Forsyth County), it'll be over by 2 a.m.

13,640 people without power in Forsyth -- not me though.

No reports of injuries, but there are many places where damage is still being assessed.

Looks like the Yadkin tornado is heading to Pinnacle, north of me.

UPDATE (1:00 a.m.):  Yeah, it's over here.  Heading to Virginia....

Tornado!

Well, this would be kind of exciting if it wasn't so scary. All's fine here in Lewisville - the worst has passed. But Greensboro is having a rough time.

Obama Picks Up 4 Supers; Hillary Loses One

First Read:

The Obama campaign announced three superdelegates -- Jeanette Council (NC); Jerry Meek (NC) and Inola Henry (CA) -- have pledged support. AP is reporting one more, a switch from Clinton in Virginia, Jennifer McClellan. (We're working to confirm that and will update.)

The Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,588-1,422
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273.5-259
OVERALL: 1,847-1.695.5

* Obama is 178 from the Magic Number of 2,025.
* There are 262.5 undeclared superdelegates, including about 50 who are not yet named and will be added on at state conventions or the like.

Hillary To Drop Out By June 15

Says an insider to the Clinton campaign (sort of).  Larry O'Donnell writes:

A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. He could not bring himself to say the words “Hillary will drop out by June 15,” but that is clearly what he meant. I kept saying, “So, Hillary will drop out by June 15,” and he kept saying, “We will have a nominee by June 15.” He stressed what a reasonable person Hillary is.

Everything about our conversation implied that he had already had this reality-based discussion with Hillary. He said the Clinton campaign plan is to collect as many votes and delegates as they can right through June 3, then take no more than a week or so to make their case to the superdelegates. Nothing he said indicated that he actually expected the superdelegates to move to Hillary in the week after the final election. The Clinton campaign has not lost its grip on reality. Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to be lost on gravity-free planet Clinton, but privately they know the end is near.

Text of Obama Campaign Letter To Superdelegates

TO:   Superdelegates
FROM:   David Plouffe, Campaign Manager
RE:   An Update on the Race for Delegates
DA:   May 7, 2008

There are only six contests remaining in the Democratic primary calendar and only 217 pledged delegates left to be awarded. Only 7 percent of the pledged delegates remain on the table. There are 260 remaining undeclared superdelegates, for a total of 477 delegates left to be awarded.

With North Carolina and Indiana complete, Barack Obama only needs 172 total delegates to capture the Democratic nomination.  This is only 36% of the total remaining delegates.

Conversely, Senator Clinton needs 326 delegates to reach the Democratic nomination, which represents a startling 68% of the remaining delegates.

With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days. While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.

We believe it is exceedingly unlikely Senator Clinton will overtake our lead in the popular vote and in fact lost ground on that measure last night. However, the popular vote is a deeply flawed and illegitimate metric for deciding the nominee – since each campaign based their strategy on the acquisition of delegates. More importantly, the rules of the nomination are predicated on delegates, not popular vote.

Just as the Presidential election in November will be decided by the electoral college, not popular vote, the Democratic nomination is decided by delegates.

If we believed the popular vote was  somehow the key measurement, we would have campaigned much more intensively in our home state of Illinois and in all the other populous states, in the pursuit of larger raw vote totals. But it is not the key measurement. We played by the rules, set by you, the DNC members, and campaigned as hard as we could, in as many places as we could, to acquire delegates. Essentially, the popular vote is not much better as a metric than basing the nominee on which candidate raised more money, has more volunteers, contacted more voters, or is taller.

The Clinton campaign was very clear about their own strategy until the numbers become too ominous for them. They were like a broken record , repeating ad nauseum that this nomination race is about delegates. Now, the word delegate has disappeared from their vocabulary, in an attempt to change the rules and create an alternative reality.

We want to be clear – we believe that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates will and should be the nominee of our party. And we estimate that after the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20, we will have won a majority of the overall pledged delegates  According to a recent news report, by even their most optimistic estimates the Clinton Campaign expects to trail by more than 100 pledged delegates and will then ask the superdelegates to overturn the will of the voters.

But of course superdelegates are free to and have been utilizing their own criteria for deciding who our nominee should be. Many are deciding on the basis of electability, a favorite Clinton refrain. And if you look at the numbers, during a period where the Clinton campaign has been making an increasingly strident pitch on electability, it is clear their argument is failing miserably with superdelegates.

Since February 5, the Obama campaign has netted 107 superdelegates, and the Clinton campaign only 21. Since the Pennsylvania primary, much of it during the challenging Rev. Wright period, we have netted 24 and the Clinton campaign 17.

At some point – we would argue that time is now – this ceases to be a theoretical exercise about how superdelegates view electability. The reality of the preferences in the last several weeks offer a clear guide of how strongly superdelegates feel Senator Obama will perform in November, both in building a winning campaign for the presidency as well as providing the best electoral climate across the country for all Democratic candidates.

It is important to note that Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton in superdelegate endorsements among Governors, United States Senators and members of the House of Representatives. These elected officials all have a keen sense for who our strongest nominee will be in November.

It is only among DNC members where Senator Clinton holds a lead, which has been rapidly dwindling.

As we head into the final days of the campaign, we just wanted to be clear with you as a party leader, who will be instrumental in making the final decision of who our nominee will be, how we view the race at this point.

Senator Obama, our campaign and our supporters believe pledged delegates is the most legitimate metric for determining how this race has unfolded. It is simply the ratification of the DNC rules – your rules – which we built this campaign and our strategy around.

NC Primary Voting Stats

• 1,593,395 votes were cast for Democrat Presidential Nominee
• Statewide voter turnout was %36.42
• 897,107 for Obama (56.3%), 660,747 for Clinton (41.47%), 12,448 for Mike Gravel (0.78%), statewide
• In my district (Lewisville Elementary), there are 3,099 registered voters.  300 voted for Clinton; 369 for Obama; 3 for Mike Gravel; and 3 for "no preference"
• 404,599 votes in the Dem Pres Nominee were cast statewide by absentee or early voting.  Of those, 59.2% went to Obama, 38.64% to Clinton
• Forsyth County went 67.4% Obama to 31.53% Clinton

No Path To Victory

It was clear to me that Hillary lacked a clear path to victory even before Pennsylvania.  Now, in the wake of the North Carolina blowout and the Indiana squeaker, I don't see how she has a path at all, clear or otherwise.

She's behind in the popular vote.  Even if you "give" her the votes in Florida and Michigan (the latter of which, Obama wasn't even on the ballot), she's still behind.

She's behind in the delegate count.  Obama is within 200 of the mark.

The superdelegates have got to be coming out for Obama, recognizing that he is the clear favorite of Democratic voters.

What can Clinton do now to win?  Absolutely nothing.

She has to think about her political future -- either the VP spot (if she wants it), or a future run in 4 or 8 years.

I'm not saying she should drop out.  But she's got to change the tone of her campaign and be more concilliatory -- for the good of the party and the presumptive nominee.

It looks, however, like she has read the writing on the wall.  Not only did she cancel her morning show appearances this morning, but we have learned this morning that she has cancelled all public appearances for tomorrow.

It's over.  Not signed, sealed and delivered -- but it's over.

UPDATE: On a conference call with reporters this morning, the Clinton campaign says there have been "no discussions" of ending the campaign.

Don't believe it.  I'm sure it was discussed.

And although Clinton backer George McGovern says it's time for her to withdraw, and do did Wesley Clark, it looks like the campaign is forging on, putting all their eggs in the argument that Michigan and Florida delegates should count.

I'm not sure I would put much stock in the campaign conference call.  I think that's the campaign talking, and not Hillary.  They have to take that "full steam ahead" position until a decision and strategy has been laid out.

NC and IN Primaries

Gotta love this.

Get home from rehearsal, and I see Obama has won NC by 14%.  A lot bigger than polls predicted.  And Clinton barely squeaked a victory in IN, by only 2%, a lot lower than polls predicted.

UPDATE:  MSNBC is saying Indiana is too close to call.  Obama might win.  They're saying that Hillary is cancelling her morning show appearances.

"The Whole Nine Yards"

Where does that phrase come from?  Nobody knows:

Another thing some people just can’t accept is that the origins of many common expressions will probably always remain a mystery. We know, for instance, what “the whole nine yards” means—the works, everything, the whole enchilada. But nobody knows where it comes from.

Before you offer the definitive etymology of the expression, let me say that I’ve heard it before. I’ve heard them all, and none of them are genuine. “The whole nine yards” is not a reference to ammunition clips used by gunners on World War II aircraft. It is not a seafaring phrase about the three yards—or long spars—on each of the three masts of a clipper ship. It has nothing to do with the amount of fabric required to make a burial shroud. And it’s not about the capacity of a ready-mix concrete truck, either.

In fact, no one really knows how the phrase originated. All we know for sure is that it’s an Americanism from the 1960s. Unfortunately, many linguists and writers (including me) have spent way too much time trying to track down its origin. All those theories I mentioned, from ammo belts to loads of cement, have been debunked. The British language sleuth Michael Quinion has also ruled out suggestions that the phrase comes from the fabric needed for a nun’s habit, a three-piece suit, or a Scottish kilt; the capacity of a coal-ore wagon or a garbage truck; the length of a maharajah’s sash or a hangman’s noose; the distance between the cellblock and the outer wall of a prison, and any number of measurements having to do with sports.

We simply don’t know—and may never know—where some words and expressions come from. But language lovers hate to take no for an answer. Maybe that’s how myths are born.

NC Election Results

It won't fly until this evening, but the NC Board of Elections has a cool webpage set up (with graphs, piecharts, etc.) for the official results as they come in.

Myanmar Relief

World Vision:

The government of Myanmar has invited World Vision to provide assistance in the form of zinc sheets, tents, tarpaulins and medicine. The agency is coordinating with authorities to explore an airlift of emergency supplies into the country from one of its global warehouses.

World Vision assessment teams have been deployed to the hardest-hit areas to determine the most urgent needs. The agency is already providing clothing (sarongs and t-shirts) as well as tarpaulins and blankets to 100 households in the capital, along with 10,000 kg of rice and 7,000 liters of water.

World Vision estimates that up to 2 million people may be affected by the cyclone. The organisation has several community development programmes in areas hit by the path of the storm...

Direct Relief:

Direct Relief has contacted partners in Thailand and other neighboring countries, some of whom also run programs in Myanmar, to offer assistance to medical relief efforts for people affected by the storm.

The Myanmar government has yet to issue a formal request for international assistance - historically, the country rarely invites outside groups to provide assistance, even in emergencies...

International Rescue Committee:

The International Rescue Committee is dispatching an emergency team to Myanmar to rapidly assess needs and lay the groundwork for urgent assistance for people made homeless by the weekend's devastating cyclone.

The IRC team will begin to assemble in Yangon Tuesday.

"The communities hit by the cyclone and the government face enormous challenges in responding to a disaster of this scale," says Greg Beck, the IRC's Asia regional director, speaking from Chiang Mai, Thailand. "With our years of emergency experience, we're hopeful that we can help bring critical assistance to the people of Myanmar." ...

You can help by donating to the Red Cross/Red Crescent, Doctors Without Borders, Save The Children, UNICEF, or the World Food Programme, all of which are providing assistance in Burma.

10 Worst Natural Disasters By Death Toll - A Comparison:

1. 1931 Yellow River Flood of China – 1 million to 3.7 million
2. 1887 Yellow River Flood of China – 900,000 to 2 million
3. 1557 Shaanxi earthquake of Shaanxi Province, China – 830,000
4. 1970 Bhola cyclone of Bangladesh – 200,000 to 500,000
5. 1839 India cyclone – 300,000
6. 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami – 283,100
7. 526 Antioch earthquake of Syria – 250,000
8. 1976 Tangshan earthquake of China – 242,000
9. 1975 Bangiao dam failure of China – 231,000
10. 1138 Aleppo earthquake of Syria – 230,000

Cassie Maggs

Something disconcerting about a 3 week old resting on a "Debbie Does Dallas" T-shirt:

But seriously, lots of pic here.

The Mortality Rate Of Iraq And Afghan Wars

Something to think about when you consider the U.S. casualty count.

Thomas Insel — director of the National Institute of Mental Health and the U.S. government’s top psychiatric researcher — said today that “the number of suicides among veterans of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may exceed the combat death toll because of inadequate mental health care.” Bloomberg reports:

Insel echoed a Rand Corporation study published last month that found about 20 percent of returning U.S. soldiers have post-traumatic stress disorder or depression, and only half of them receive treatment. About 1.6 million U.S. troops have fought in the two wars since October 2001, the report said. About 4,560 soldiers had died in the conflicts as of today, the Defense Department reported on its Web site.

Based on those figures and established suicide rates for similar patients who commonly develop substance abuse and other complications of post-traumatic stress disorder, “it’s quite possible that the suicides and psychiatric mortality of this war could trump the combat deaths,” Insel said.

Early Voting Stats: NC

% of Early Voters
Men 38.7%
Women 60.8%

White 56.5%
Black 39.9%

White Women 33.2%
White Men 23.1%

Democrat 84.1%
Unaffiliated 15.8%

***************

More info:

Voter registration as of today (via State Board of Elections):
Democratic: 2,633,381 Republican: 1,933,658 Unaffiliated: 1,244,739 Total: 5,811,778

Absentee Counts as of 05/06/2008 6:00am:
Absentee Mail Ballots Returned: 24,900 Absentee Onestop Ballots Cast: 471,006

Primary Day [UPDATE: Heavy turnout]

I'm in North Carolina, and have already voted.  [UPDATE: If you are in NC, here's some voting information].

[UPDATE:  Heavy turnout reported as of noon today,  More here]

The eyes of the nation are on this state and Indiana, but my eyes are on Indiana.  If Obama can eke out a win there, even a minor one, it may be just enough for Hillary to throw in the towel.  It certainly will help Obama with the undecided superdelegates.

Unfortunately, I place the chance of that happening at about 10%.  Later deciders typically have gone for Clinton (except in the South), and she already enjoys a 5 point lead (roughly) in Indiana going into today's primaries.

Anyway, as part of today's election analysis, I'm going to answer the "eight questions" that WaPo reporter Dan Balz put to himself in today's column.  (I haven't read his answers beforehand).

1. Has Obama put the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy behind him?

Yes.  The media has played it out.  Nothing more can be said.  To the extent it has affected voters' opinions (and it probably affected some), the "damage" has been done.  But my sense is that the moajority of voters are concerned about the economy and gas prices, and have come to see the whole "controversy" as a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

2. Will the gas tax holiday proposal help or hurt Clinton?

Hurt mostly.  Anyone who has heard the gas tax holiday proposal has also heard the criticisms of it -- specifically, it won't put much money back in the consumer profits, and gas station owners won't necessarily lower prices.  Also, it hurts jobs.

States will lose revenue earmarked to improve highways and infrastructure.

Need I say more?

Clinton's proposal also has resulted in having her placed shoulder-to-shoulder with McCain.  It also reaks of obvious pandering.  Certainly, some will not see this, but the majority of voters will see this as Washington-as-usual, and think more seriously about Obama.

3. Will a Clinton win in either contest guarantee that the race will go to the convention?

Guarantee?  No.  But it will certainly help.  If Clinton pulls an upset in North Carolina, that will come closest to guaranteeing a race all the way to the convention. 

But Clinton is in for the long haul.  The only thing that will make her go away is when the math gets too bad that even she can't deny it.

4. After today, which state will be most important to determining the Democratic contest?

None.  The rest of the states are too small to make any significant difference in terms of delegate count.

5. Is there a person remaining whose endorsement could make a difference in the race?

Al Gore and John Edwards.

6. If Obama wins the nomination, can he win working-class white voters in November?

Maybe not win, but he can cut deeply into McCain's perceived strength in that area.  Working class voters are the ones who suffer most from the economic policies of Bush -- policies which McCain for the most part embraces.  If Obama can get that message out, he can take a significant chunk of working class white voters.

7. If Clinton wins the nomination, will black voters support the Democratic ticket?

Of course.

8. Who do Republican leaders see as the tougher opponent -- Obama or Clinton?

Obama.  This can be shown by the efforts of Limbaugh and others to get Republicans to vote for Hillary in the primaries.  They want to run against Hillary.

**************************

This prediction sounds about right to me:

I should make an official prediction about tonight, right? Well, clearly the universe is conspiring to make this primary last as long as possible. So what's going to happen is that (of course) Clinton will win Indiana and Obama will win North Carolina. But Clinton will win Indiana by a larger margin than Obama wins North Carolina, and Clinton's supporters will note in somber tones that Obama lost the white vote in NC. At the same time, because NC has substantially more delegates than Indiana, Obama will actually make a small gain in net delegates causing his supporters (i.e. me) to become further enraged at Clinton's refusal to admit that she's lost and the press' insistence on indulging the idea that there's real doubt about the ultimate outcome.

*******************************

Poll roundup:

INDIANA:

Composite Pollster.com score:

Clinton 49.7
Obama 43.9

Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)

Clinton 48 (47)
Obama 44 (40)

Zogby. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)

Clinton 42 (42)
Obama 44 (42)

Suffolk. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Clinton 49
Obama 43

PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)

Clinton 51 (50)
Obama 46 (42)

ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)

Clinton 53 (53)
Obama 45 (44)

SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/25-27 results)

Clinton 54 (52)
Obama 42 (43)

SUSA says 12 points, but I find it hard to believe. I think Zogby is full of crap. The six-point composite sounds reasonable. All of these polls except SUSA show movement in Obama's direction.

NORTH CAROLINA

Composite Pollster.com score:

Obama 49.9
Clinton 42.2

Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 3% (5/1 results)

Obama 48 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)

Zogby. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)

Obama 48 (50)
Clinton 40 (34)

PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)

Obama 53 (51)
Clinton 43 (39)

ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)

Obama 50 (52)
Clinton 42 (41)

SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/26-28 results)

Obama 50 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)

For what it's worth, SurveyUSA has had the best track record for accuracy this primary season.

*************************************

CNN:  Record turnout in NC possible

Red Sox-Yankees Rivalry Gets Ugly

Folks, it's just a game.

An Open Statement Opposing Proposals for a Gas Tax Holiday

Here:

In recent weeks, there have been proposals in Congress and by some presidential candidates to suspend the gas tax for the summer. As economists who study issues of energy policy, taxation, public finance, and budgeting, we write to indicate our opposition to this policy.

Put simply, suspending the federal tax on gasoline this summer is a bad idea and we oppose it.

There are several reasons for this opposition:

First, research shows that waiving the gas tax would generate major profits for oil companies rather than significantly lowering prices for consumers.

Second, it would encourage people to keep buying costly imported oil and do nothing to encourage conservation.

Third, a tax holiday would provide very little relief to families feeling squeezed.

Fourth, the gas tax suspension would threaten to increase the already record deficit in the coming year and reduce the amount of money going into the highway trust fund that maintains our infrastructure.

Signers of this letter are Democrats, Republicans and Independents. This is not a partisan issue. It is a matter of good public policy.

And then it's signed by over 221 economics experts and professors.

My Predictions For Tomorrow

Obama wins North Carolina by 11.

Hillary wins Indiana by 4.

Hillary doesn't drop out.  It goes to the convention.

Recent Obama video in NC:

The good stuff (in my opinion) starts at the 5:00 mark.

MESSAGE FOR THOSE READING THIS WHO ARE NOT POLITICALLY INCLINED:  Take the time and go vote for Obama anyway.  Just trust me.  Or, if not me, then Tom Hanks.